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Adventures in Group Breaking

Posted by on 21 December 2013 Comments Off on Adventures in Group Breaking

Breakin’ 3: Bowman Sterling-y

In case you’ve been living under a rock (or just don’t follow the sports card industry), group breaking is the hottest trend in sports cards.  For a (relatively) small fee, collectors who can’t afford the high prices of modern cases can still get a shot at a big hit, provided that they buy into the right slots.  Formats vary, but there are opportunities to get a big return on a small investment (or the reverse).  I’ve been doing the cost-benefit analysis on the various opportunities I’ve seen and finally found the right mix of return and risk in the year’s final offering from Topps as broken by collector favorite Brent Williams.  But before we get to that, let’s take a look at a couple of smaller breaks I tested the waters with earlier in the year.

2012 Panini Prizm

The first break I considered this year was the 2012 Panini Prizm team break from Brent Williams.  I decided that it wasn’t worth the risk at the asking price when I would probably walk away with a Lucas Duda autograph as the big hit.  Instead, I found a cheap 4-box break to buy into.  That should have been good for two base team sets on average, which would include a Matt Harvey Rookie card (because this was a 2012 product).  In the end, I got what I was hoping for: one full team set, a second team set minus one card, an extra Ike Davis, and a few inserts.

And of course a Duda auto.  There was no getting around that one.

2013 Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects

I never really know how to deal with Bowman Draft.  Prices for some of the cards that come out of it can be quite high, but the long-term value is highly volatile.  Positioned at the end of the base Bowman line, most of the Rookie Cards are duplicates from earlier releases (with new photos), which adds to the confusion.  This year, with increased production, decreased numbering on colored refractors, and more variants than ever before, I just bought up base and chrome lots, the base autographs, and a few cheap parallels and left it at that.  To make things interesting, I also bid on a few player slots in a 5-case break from RynemCaseBreaks.  I ended up with only two, Andrew Church (non-auto only) and Zack Wheeler.  With a total cost including shipping of less than $20 and a practically guaranteed 30+ card lot of base/chrome cards for each player, I wasn’t too worried about coming up empty.  Because there wasn’t much of a chance at a big return anyway.

I actually watched almost all of the 5-case break live and it was quite entertaining.  Some slots came up big while others were big losers.  The Bowman Black slot, a bargain at well under $100, was the big winner with both Kris Bryant and Austin Meadows pulled from the 5 cases.  That’s over $500 worth of cards for a slot that could have been a total loss.  On the Mets side of things, the $20 Andrew Church autograph slot came up big with base, refractor, and orange refractor (#d/25) versions pulled in the break.  The $120 Dominic Smith autograph slot on the other hand got just a base autograph (worth about $20).

My slots were not big winners.  In addition to the expected base and chrome cards, I got four parallels: two Zack Wheeler refractors, a Zack Wheeler ice parallel, and an Andrew Church black wave refractor.  Out of all of the base Mets pulled in the break, the best card was a green refractor numbered to 75.

2013 Bowman Sterling

And now, the main event.  Bowman Sterling isn’t exactly my favorite product.  Released at the end of the year, it usually features a mix of rehashed rookies and draft picks, a less popular second helping of autographs we’ve already seen in more interesting products.  Last year, a terribly bland design with refractors that barely looked like refractors did nothing to help the checklist of repeat signers.  Prices on the secondary market reflected these problems; I picked up a gold refractor autograph (#d/50) of Kirk Nieuwenhuis for $1.50 plus shipping and a black refractor autograph (#d/25) of Kevin Plawecki for about $10 more.  The Bowman Black autographs had some decent value, but the massive chipping that plagued thick Topps autographs in 2012 caused them to lose some of their appeal.  Sterling needed a revamp to justify taking a slot in the Topps lineup.

2013 Bowman Sterling is a completely different product from its 2012 incarnation.  Sure, the basics are still the same: 3 autographs per pack, 18 total autographs per box, dual sticker autographs, Bowman Black autographs numbered to 25, etc.  This time though, the autographs are in portrait orientation (typically more highly desired than landscape) and green, ruby, and orange refractor parallels fill the space between refractors and gold refractors.  Most Rookie Card autographs are, unfortunately, on stickers, but the product delivers where it counts: prospect autographs.  2013 draft picks Dominic Smith and Andrew Church return after Bowman Draft, but joining them are Noah Syndergaard with his first Mets autographs and L.J. Mazzilli (fan favorite Lee Mazzilli’s son) with his first certified autograph cards.  Add in some Zack Wheeler sticker autographs and you have a solid Mets checklist with a few must-haves for any serious Mets collector.

Shortly after the checklist was released, Brent Williams announced the possibility of a team-based group break of Bowman Sterling on launch day.  With 106 rookie/prospect autographs in 2013 Bowman Sterling and 144 total autographs in an 8-box case, the odds of getting all of a team’s base autographs are pretty good.  A quick calculation put the over/under of the value of the Mets slot at $90.  For the right price, this would be a great break to get in on.  Which meant that I probably wasn’t the only Mets fan who would be after this slot.

Two days later, Brent Williams announced that the Bowman Sterling break was on.  I was catching up on Twitter while waiting in line at the post office to mail out recent auction sales.  And I was a couple of hours behind on my tweets.  Skipping to the top, I saw that the price breakdown had just been posted.  The Mets slot was priced at $90, right on my estimated cost.  At that price, even getting just the base Mets autographs wouldn’t be a bad deal, especially with them all in one package sent the day after launch.  There was a chance of getting less, but there was also a decent chance of getting some nice bonuses.  20 minutes after the announcement, I claimed the Mets slot without hesitation.  And then I waited two long days for the break to begin.

2013 Bowman Sterling 8-Box Case Break – brentandbecca

I tried to keep my expectations in check.  All I wanted were the five base Mets autographs, one of the base Mets cards, and something extra.  Unfortunately, I missed the start of the break and came in about halfway through.  Among all of the Pirates, Philies, and Yankees autographs, I saw only a Noah Syndergaard base card and two L.J. Mazzilli base autographs.  From what I heard, I had missed a pair of Andrew Church base autographs and a Dominic Smith green refractor autograph.  That still left me three base autographs short of my goal as the break entered its final minutes.  And then the rest of them started hitting one after another.  The base Dominic Smith auto and a green refractor Zack Wheeler auto came up at the end of box number 7.  Box number 8 held the final two base autos, Syndergaard and Wheeler.  And with that, this break had exceeded my expectations.

And that’s it.  Nothing huge, but everything I wanted.  I also had a chance at both The Duel inserts featuring Mets, but I lost out on both of them to the other team featured on the card.  Now I’m just waiting for the post office to deliver the cards.

The GIFs of 2013

Posted by on 15 December 2013 Comments Off on The GIFs of 2013

A few brief moments to remember in another lost year

Over at Notgraphs, they’re looking at the year’s best baseball GIFs.  All they have from the Mets though is that one fan falling down in the background.  I know what it was a dismal season, but there must be something worth GIFfing, right?  Unfortunately, I don’t have most of it.  Between being an out-of-market television viewer and Amazin’ Avenue’s Eric Simon going GIF-crazy this year, I’ve been off my GIF game.  The competition is downright cutthroat these days, with some people spending hours every day in front of a multi-screened custom GIFfing rig so they can catch every GIFfable moment.  So I don’t bother trying to get everything and just take what I can get.  What follows is the second installment in our series of GIF roundups.  If you missed it, here’s the first.

Read on for the rest.

Read more »

The Essentials: 2013 Mets Manufactured Material

Posted by on 13 December 2013 Comments Off on The Essentials: 2013 Mets Manufactured Material

The kitchen sink of baseball cards has standouts and oddities

A lot of baseball cards have been released in 2013. Between Topps (MLB and MLBPA licenses), Panini (MLBPA license), Leaf (no licenses), and Upper Deck (MLBPA license but strict MLB oversight), more than 40 baseball products have been released this year. So which cards stand out from the rest? To answer that question, we’ll break down the key Mets cards from 2013 in The Essentials.

Manufactured material, like game-used memorabilia and certified autographs, traces its roots in the modern sports card era back to the late 1990s. Aside from its use as a surface for autographs though, it wasn’t until recent years that manufactured material came into its own as a hobby offering with diversity and innovation. Topps raised the bar in 2012 with premium metal manufactured relics and continued this trend into 2013.

Minor League Logos

So many things wrong with that d’Arnaud card…

Back again after their debut in 2012, minor league hat logo patches from many minor league teams were included in Topps Pro Debut and Topps Heritage Minor League. Oddly, it looks like these are the exact same patches that were used in 2012. Topps must have had a few extras left over… Note the use of last year’s logos for the St. Lucie Mets and Buffalo Bisons (as for why Travis d’Arnaud is shown with the Bisons, well…). Between the two products, six Mets were featured on logo patch cards, covering most of the top prospects in the Mets farm system. Unlike last year, a consistent style was used for both sets of logo patch inserts in 2013. It would be nice to see Topps continue this moving forward to create a running set with top prospects for years to come. The logos need a bit of an update though.

Mascot Patches

Not shown: Buster T. Bison. Not sure I even want to…

New for 2013, Topps Pro Debut added patch cards for various minor league mascots. Cyclones mascot Sandy the Seagull was the only mascot from a current Mets farm team featured in this set, but Buffalo Bisons mascots Buster T. Bison and Belle the Ballpark Diva were shown in their 2012 incarnations, so I guess they count (though I wouldn’t exactly call them essential). I’m not quite sold on these just yet.

Retail Commemorative Patches

At the major league level, the bulk of the manufactured material was released in the base Topps products: Topps Series 1, Topps Series 2, and Topps Update. Many of those were the cracker jack-style prize inside $20 retail blasters, included as a consolation prize for spending $20 on a few packs of cards with terrible odds on getting anything good (with most of those “good” cards not worth much of anything anyway). Of course, with typical selling prices between $5 and $25, they sometimes make you feel like a bit of a chump for spending $100 a pop on hobby jumbo boxes where the only decent card is a manufactured relic that sells for between $5 and $25… But I digress.

The first of the retail manufactured patch sets feature miniature versions of commemorative shoulder patches or anything else Topps felt like making. Only two Mets were included here, David Wright with the Mets 50th anniversary patch and Tom Seaver with the 1969 World Series patch. I guess these can get filed away with all of the similar cards Topps has produced over the last few years.

The second retail manufactured patch set consists of framed mini card patches featuring an assortment of rookie cards and other random stuff. For the Mets, that meant rookie card patches from Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden, and Jose Reyes and a very off-center 1970 Topps Nolan Ryan.

Silk Collection

Shoulder surgery starting pitchers for the, um, DL I guess…

Honestly, I’m not really sure how to classify silk cards. They’re not typically considered relics, but they are technically manufactured material, so here they are. R.A. Dickey, David Wright, and Matt Harvey are the big Mets names with silk cards in 2013, but I don’t have any of them so here’s Johan Santana and Shaun Marcum.

Award Winner Relics

This year’s theme for hobby manufactured relics was award winners. Each card featured a tiny metal replica of one of several featured awards, including MVPs, Cy Youngs, Silver Sluggers, Rookies of the Year, World Series MVPs, etc. The best looking of the bunch were the MVP relics, but the Mets have never had an MVP.

They have had a bunch of Cy Young winners though, most recently R.A. Dickey in 2012. Who was not featured in this set. Instead, we got Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden.

Darryl Strawberry’s Silver Slugger rounds out the three Mets featured in Series 1 with a photo that somewhat ironically crops out the bat he is swinging. Series 2 featured Mets Rookies of the Year Tom Seaver, Darryl Strawberry, and Dwight Gooden. Um, what happened to Jon Matlack? Am I the only one who remembers that he existed?

Proven Mettle Coins

And that brings us to the last and best category of manufactured relics, the coins. Last year, Topps introduced manufactured coin relics, the first I’ve seen since some pretty lame attempts in the late ’90s that embedded what looked like amusement park tokens into cards. The Topps version uses huge coins with the card barely wrapped around them. Only one Met, Tom Seaver of course, was featured in last year’s coins. In 2013, the Proven Mettle (get it?) coins featured a three-tier parallel with copper (#d/99), wrought iron (#d/50), and steel (#d/10) versions. David Wright joins Seaver this time for a total of six Mets cards. If you only get one manufactured material card from 2013, it should be one of these coins.

Did I miss anything?  Let me know in the comments.

Product Spotlight: 2013 Topps Finest

Posted by on 11 November 2013 Comments Off on Product Spotlight: 2013 Topps Finest

From innovative to irrelevant in 20 years

It’s hard to believe that it’s already been 20 years since the introduction of the super premium baseball card. Just four years after Upper Deck started the move toward quality over quantity, the hobby was on its second iteration of premium product escalation. Base Upper Deck was now practically low-end in it’s final year before making another premium jump to keep up with competition from Leaf, Stadium Club, and Ultra. Now all of these products seem like a distant memory. 1993’s addition of the super premium tier promised to make everything that came before obsolete through the use of new technology. Fleer’s Flair used the thickest, glossiest cardboard stock on the market. Upper Deck’s SP featured die-cut cards and expanded use of UD’s trademark hologram technology. And Topps introduced the baseball world to its chromium technology with 1993 Finest.

While Topps debuted chromium in its football products (a recurring theme in the industry), Finest was the first baseball product to feature it. That alone was a big draw, but it was the refractors that got everyone’s attention. These were the days when a refractor was a refractor with no colored variants, x-fractors, atomic refractors, or superfractors. These cards were bright and shiny with a multicolored metallic finish that nothing else could match. And a price that many of us could not afford. But they sure were pretty. By the end of the decade, chromium was all over Topps products, making Finest just one of many using the technology. In 2013, Finest was a mere chrome afterthought in a crowded late-season release schedule.

Card Design

How far Finest has fallen… Scans don’t do base chrome cards justice, but there’s just nothing exciting about this design. The design theme seems to be sheet metal with holes drilled in it. The color from the early years of Finest is long gone, saved for the refractor parallels. No cardback could jazz up this lifeless design, but this one doesn’t even try. On its own merits, this design falls short. Released just two weeks after 2013 Topps Chrome and 2013 Bowman Chrome and less than a month after 2013 Panini Prizm and 2013 Leaf Metal, Finest was caught in a logjam of chrome products. With a small checklist and a high price, a bland design is just inexcusable.

Mets Selection

Finest’s 100-card checklist eliminates any need for borderline stars or lesser players. Topps Chrome and Bowman Chrome had to contend with the question of Ike Davis or Lucas Duda, but there was no way either would have a chance here. If nothing else, Finest weeds out all of the filler and focuses on the game’s biggest stars. For the Mets, that means David Wright and Matt Harvey. More than a third of the product is dedicated to rookies, so Zack Wheeler is a given here. Jeurys Familia rounds out the Mets quartet because he’s in everything.

Refractors

2013 Finest includes the usual refractor parallels: four styles (refractor, x-fractor, atomic, and superfractor) and four colors (green, orange, gold, and red). With eight refractor parallels in total, Finest is one of the most restrained chrome products in the Topps lineup. Eight may seem like a lot, but it is downright reasonable compared to the 13 refractors in 2013 Topps Chrome, 14 refractors in 2013 Bowman Chrome, and even more refractor styles coming in 2013 Bowman Draft. Without a border on the base design, the color is instead applied inside the holes in the background. This diminishes the color’s visual effect a bit, but it’s not like there was much visual appeal to work with in the first place.

Inserts

2013 Finest recognized its history with inserts based on the 1993 design. Matt Harvey is featured in the base 1993 style and David Wright is in the All-Star version. Both also have refractor parallels numbered to 25 and 10, respectively. Matt Harvey also has a die-cut Prodigies refractor insert (with a different picture even). Clearly, the Finest brand is capable of delivering a compelling product, just not in modern base cards it would seem.

Autographs

Last year, human autograph factory Kirk Nieuwenhuis was the Mets representative in Finest’s rookie autographs. This year, it was more of the same with Jeurys Familia signing anything put in front of him. Versions include all of the same refractor styles from the base refractors with a slight twist; instead of applying the color to the holes, the entire background except for the holes is colored. With lots of color at the top and the area underneath the signature faded out (as Topps has started doing in most products this year) at the bottom, these look a lot better than the base refractors.

Autographed Relics

Zack Wheeler is a bit of an upgrade from last year’s Jordany Valdespin in the autographed jumbo relic inserts. These cards feature sticker autographs and jersey swatches sized to match, all in the same refractor variants as the base cards and autographs. The material in these cards is a mix of pieces of Wheeler’s 2012 Futures Game jersey (light blue and white mesh swatches) and pieces of a home white Mets jersey (Wheeler’s first MLB-worn memorabilia) with patch swatches in the low-numbered versions. One downside to the use of stickers is that they force Wheeler to shrink his signature to fit. Wheeler’s unconstrained autographs look great but I’m not sold on the miniature version.

Conclusion

It’s clear that Finest has fallen into a rut after 20 years. Once the industry leader in innovation, it has now been reduced to a simple formula repeated year after year. Topps has added more and more to all of its other chromium products, leaving Finest out of date and out of touch. The small checklist (half of the size of the original 1993 set) and a release date right after two chrome products featuring the same players and better card designs aren’t doing Finest any favors.

The one big selling point of 2013 Finest is its historical connection. The problem here though is that it doesn’t look like the brand has gone anywhere in 20 years. Looking at the 1993 and 2013 designs side by side, there’s not much of a difference. The new design adds team names and player positions but loses color and design concept. This just isn’t a premium product for today’s market. Topps needs to overhaul Finest in 2014 or let it go the way of Stadium Club.

The Danger of Pitchers Signing Autographs

Posted by on 21 October 2013 Comments Off on The Danger of Pitchers Signing Autographs

Ink and arms don’t mix

Here at Collect the Mets, we guarantee you one card-related crackpot conspiracy theory every year.  It’s part of the differentiated value we offer in our efforts to deliver content that you won’t find anywhere else (often with good reason).  Last year, we broke the story about the Curse of the Pinstripes, which has yet to claim any victims in 2013.  So far, no current-year Mets players have had Mets pinstripe jersey cards released in 2013 (Update: Zack Wheeler was the lone current-year Met with pinstripe jersey cards released in 2013), though at least Matt Harvey and Jeremy Hefner are known to be out for 2014.  If either of them has a Mets pinstripe jersey card in one of the final products of the year, that provides retroactive validation of the curse.  If not, well, then we don’t get any nice pinstripe jersey cards, which is frustrating for collectors.

This year, the Mets suffered injury after injury from even before Day 1.  Johan Santana was the big question mark for 2013, but it turns out that he was little more than an underscore.  After an injury in spring training, Santana went back under the knife and was lost for 2013.  That’s how it went for Mets pitchers for the rest of the year, right up to Matt Harvey’s postseason announcement that he would be undergoing Tommy John surgery and would miss 2014.  With bookends like that, much will be written about the Mets’ injury woes in 2013, but most blogs will leave out one crucial element: the fact that so many pitchers signed large quantities of autograph cards right before their injuries.  Can this be a coincidence?  In a word: absolutely.  Everyone is looking for a pattern in pitcher injuries (see our own Good Pitcher Effect), but their commonality masks any clear causality.  Which makes it just as likely as anything else that signing autographs leads to pitcher breakdowns.

Injured With Autographs

Jeurys Familia (Topps Series 1, Topps Gypsy Queen, Bowman, Bowman Inception, Panini Pinnacle, Topps Tier One, Topps Chrome, Topps Finest)

Jeurys Familia was once considered one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects alongside Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler.  By the time he made his MLB debut in 2012, he was projecting more as a late-inning reliever or closer than a starter.  He entered 2013 as one of only two Mets eligible for Rookie Cards but was no sure bet to make the team out of spring training.  While he did just barely make the Opening Day roster, he made only eight appearances before going on the 60-day DL on May 9 in need of elbow surgery.  After three months of rehab, Familia returned to Queens for his final appearance of 2013, giving up one run on two hits and two walks while striking out one to open the 9th in an 8-5 Mets loss.

Familia was the go-to guy for Mets autographs in 2013.  His Rookie Card eligibility made him a safe bet to appear in most of the products released in 2013 and an attractive option for autographed inserts.  With autographs in Topps Series 1, Topps Gypsy Queen, and Bowman, he must have been signing well before the start of the season.  The timing lines up, but were the autographs a factor in his injury?  Let’s just say yes for the sake of the narrative.  His continued presence in just about everything else this year means that he must have been signing autographs during rehab.  Could that sabotage his recovery?

Luis Mateo (Bowman Platinum, Bowman Chrome)

As part of the 2012 Brooklyn Cyclones all-star rotation, Luis Mateo saw his prospect status rise considerably.  While not as polished as teammate Gabriel Ynoa, Mateo was the highest-regarded pitcher from that Brooklyn rotation and made the jump to St. Lucie for the 2013 Season.  After one start for St. Lucie, he was called up to AA Binghamton to make a spot start, which is where everything went wrong.  He suffered an elbow injury during the game, spent more than a month rehabbing in an attempt to avoid more severe injury, and then had Tommy John surgery in June after a pair of relief appearances for St. Lucie.

And then he had his first autograph cards released in July in Bowman Platinum.  As with Familia’s first autos, these were almost certainly signed before the start of the season.  Mateo would also have autographs released in September in Bowman Chrome, but it is not known when he signed these (Rafael Montero and Matt Reynolds signed theirs in the summer).  That’s two big autograph signers and two busted elbows.  But wait, there’s more.

Shaun Marcum (Topps Series 2, Topps Tier One)

There were many people who doubted that Shaun Marcum would ever throw a pitch for the Mets.  With a reputation for being injury-prone, Marcum’s signing came at significant risk.  So it came as no surprise that his season ended in July with shoulder surgery.

And then he had 670 autograph cards released in Topps Tier One the next month.  He was also supposed to have autographs in Topps Series 2 in June, but those were issued as redemptions.  Did his spring training injury delay his signing until May or June?  If so, the timing lines up with his injury.  That’s two elbows and a shoulder now, though we have no causative link.  But when has that ever stopped anyone?

Corey Oswalt (Topps Heritage Minor League Edition)

Knee injury, only signed for one product late in the season – let’s just mark this one “Not Applicable” and move on.

Matt Harvey (2011 Bowman Platinum signed in July 2013)

And the big one.  Matt Harvey was one of the few reasons to watch the Mets in 2013, so the news in August that he had a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) was devastating.  Harvey drew out the decision of whether to have Tommy John surgery until October, when he announced that he was opting for surgery.  That takes him out for all of 2014 and makes it questionable as to whether he will be back at full strength in 2015.

Matt Harvey has no autographs in any 2013 products.  He signed about 500 total autograph cards for Panini’s 2012 products, which were released into this spring.  Before that, you have to go back to 2010 to find any Matt Harvey autograph cards.  So why is he here?  It turns out that Harvey signed his 2011 Bowman Platinum autographs on July 25, almost two years to the day after that product was released.  And about a month before his injury was announced.  Based on a carefully-selected small sample of cases, we can conclude that autographs kill elbows and maybe shoulders.  What happens if we widen our sample a bit and take a look at a few more 2013 Mets pitchers?

Injured Without Autographs

Johan Santana

Let’s just all agree that the Curse of the Pinstripes has been working overtime here and take Santana out of the running for this one.  In fact, of the three Curse victims, Santana is the only one to ever play for the Mets again afterward, throwing the Mets’ first no-hiter in the process.  Before getting stepped on and having it all come crashing down.  Maybe the Curse is stronger than I thought…  Santana has never been a big autograph signer, so he doesn’t really fit here.

Jonathon Niese

The 2013 (and likely 2014) Opening Day starter, Niese had high expectations this year even with the emergence of Matt Harvey as an ace and the anticipated arrival of Zack Wheeler.  Now in the role of the veteran following the trade of R.A. Dickey and Johan Santana’s re-injury, it was up to him to stabilize a rotation out of control.  So it shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to see him hit the DL in June with a partially torn rotator cuff.  The injury only sidelined him for a month and a half though and Niese closed out the 2013 season at Citi Field.

After having plenty of autograph cards from 2009 to 2012, Niese has been a no-show so far this year except for a few multi-player sticker autograph cards (numbered to 15).  With no recent autographs, we can’t blame any injuries from this year on signing.  Maybe not signing autographs is the culprit here.

Jeremy Hefner

2013 was Hefner’s opportunity to step up and claim a spot in the Mets’ diminished rotation.  After securing the spot start / long reliever role in 2012, Hefner found himself at the back end of the rotation when Santana and Marcum were unavailable to start the season.  After a shaky start in his new role as a regular starter, Hefner dominated over a 6-week stretch starting in the beginning of June, pitching 51 innings over 8 starts with an ERA of 1.76, 40 strikeouts, and just 8 walks over that span.  His next start would be the shortest of the season, lasting only two plus innings with 8 runs and 10 hits given up.  His next four starts weren’t much better, going no longer than 6 innings and giving up no fewer than 3 runs in any of them.  By mid-August, Hefner was on the DL with Tommy John surgery looming in his future.

You sure can’t blame this one on autographs because Hefner doesn’t have any.  He remains one of the most prominent Mets without a certified autograph card, a problem that won’t be helped by elbow surgery.

Update:

Hefner signed his first autographs while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  And then went back under the knife for a second round…

Bobby Parnell

After Frank Francisco went down with injury, the Mets needed a new closer.  Bobby Parnell stepped up and pitched better than the results indicated, falling victim to blown saves resulting from the actions of the players behind him on more than one occasion.  And then a neck injury sidelined Parnell, with his season ending in surgery.

Parnell hasn’t signed autographs in a few years, plus this is a neck injury and not an arm injury.  There’s no connection here, so this is another one to mark “Not Applicable.”

Update:

Well, that escalated quickly…  Parnell seemed to recover from that neck injury without incident, but something didn’t seem quite right going into the 2014 season.  After an Opening Day blown save, it was revealed that Parnell had a partially torn UCL.  And in case you missed it, he also had autograph cards in 2013 Panini Select, released during the offseason.  Looks like we’ve got another one.

Jenrry Mejia

Once considered one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects (sound familiar?), Mejia made his debut in 2010 when Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel were desperate to keep their jobs.  Mejia became the sacrificial lamb, called up to pitch middle relief in low leverage spots as you would expect competent management to do with one of your top starting pitching prospects.  Or not.  Mejia’s development was further derailed by Tommy John surgery in 2011, making the fact that he even still existed news for Mets fans when he returned to the majors in September 2012.  His 2013 spring training injury on the other hand was nothing unexpected.  Injury #2 had him working his way through the minors on rehab until late July, when he made his 2013 debut with a trio of sevens: 7IP, 7H, and 7K to go with zeroes in the runs and walks columns.  Top prospect Jenrry Mejia was back, and not a minute too soon for a rotation with a rotating cast on the DL.  Which Mejia would rejoin a month later with bone spurs in his elbow for injury #3.

Mejia hasn’t signed autographs since 2010, so there’s no way to connect them to his 2013 injury unless Topps is sitting on an unused stockpile somewhere.  But did those 2010 autographs, combined with his erratic use on the mound that year, contribute to his 2011 injury?

Michael Fulmer

Ranked as one of the top prospects in the Mets system at the start of 2013, Fulmer has endured setback after setback.  A torn meniscus during spring training delayed his start to the season, then just nine starts in he was hit by a batted ball and removed as a precautionary measure.  Following that, he returned to the DL with a shoulder strain.  He is expected to be ready to go for spring training next year.

As the 44th overall pick in 2011, Michael Fulmer made the rounds in the draft pick autograph products that year.  Since then though, we haven’t really seen much from him.  Topps used a few of his sticker autographs in 2013 Bowman Chrome, but those were almost certainly old stock.  Unless he did some signing for an upcoming product over the summer, there’s nothing to see here.  Except for a series of unfortunate injuries.

Cory Mazzoni

Speaking of a series of unfortunate injuries…  Elbow neuritis in April, strained hamstring in July…  It sure seems like a lot more than that.  Mazzoni only appeared in 13 games in 2013, none of which were any of the times I saw the B-Mets.

As for autographs, Mazzoni is another one with lots of 2011 autos and not much since then.  The only 2013 Mazzoni autograph I’ve seen is the one I got from him in person at a game (while he was on the DL of course).  Another unrelated case.

Taylor Whitenton

After an injury in spring training, Whitenton has completely dropped off the map.  Let’s just call this the bottom of the barrel and stop here.

Not Injured With Autographs

A few prominent pitchers made it through the 2013 season without injury and with a few autographs to show for it.  Do they provide evidence disproving our hypothesis or do they have injuries coming in the near future?  Only time will tell.

Zack Wheeler (Bowman Platinum, Topps Chrome, Topps Finest)

Scouts reported that Wheeler was MLB-ready in spring training, but a strained oblique during batting practice caused him to lose key prep time, making a start in the minors inevitable.  From there, it was just a matter of which money-saving deadline the Mets would hold out for.  Wheeler made his MLB debut in June and nearly reached his innings limit when he was shut down for the season in September after complaining of shoulder stiffness.  The injury wasn’t considered to be serious and likely would have only caused him to miss a start if it had taken place earlier in the season.

Wheeler only had about 30 total autograph cards as a Met released before his MLB debut, then had hundreds between Bowman Platinum, Topps Chrome, and Topps Finest.  Was the impact of these signings starting to catch up to him in September?  He’s one to keep an eye on next year.

Update:

Even with the Curse of the Pinstripes piled on after 2013 Topps Triple Threads, Wheeler remained healthy for the 2014 season.  He also signed a few more autographs, but surely not enough to be cause for concern, right?.  He will miss all of the 2015 season following Tommy John surgery.

Rafael Montero (Bowman Chrome, Leaf Metal Draft)

Montero is one of the next top pitching prospects due to debut for the Mets, assuming that he isn’t traded first.  After a year split between AA and AAA, Montero could be ready at any time in 2014.  This past July, Montero signed his first certified autograph cards.  No injury followed.  So there’s that.

Domingo Tapia (Leaf Metal Draft)

Tapia has been one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects in the low minors, though his 2013 wasn’t quite in line with his past performance.  A cooking injury sidelined him for a bit in May, but otherwise he’s been fairly consistent at 100+ innings over each of the last two seasons.  Tapia was a surprise to see with an autograph in 2013 Leaf Metal Draft.

Conclusion

Inconclusive.  There’s really nothing that can be said with any certainty without a more comprehensive analysis.  For our purposes though, we can come to a completely unscientific sensationalistic conclusion based on a carefully-selected set of data points and declare that signing autographs contributes to pitcher injury.  I was joking when I started this, but the timing in some of these cases makes me wonder if there might be something to it after all.  While it certainly isn’t a direct cause, could autograph signing be one of many factors that make pitchers susceptible to arm injuries?  There’s so much we don’t know about pitcher injuries that it could be possible.

Holding Myself Accountable

Posted by on 1 October 2013 Comments Off on Holding Myself Accountable

A look back at a look ahead at the Mets in 2013

Earlier this year, I answered a few questions about the upcoming 2013 season.  To see if I had any clue about what I was talking about, I pulled out my answers and compared them to the reality of the 2013 season.

Offseason grade: B-

You can’t really judge the process by the results, but the Mets’ problems in 2013 weren’t caused by their offseason deals.  Buck and Byrd performed at least as well as expected and brought back a couple of prospects, so Mission Accomplished there.  Shaun Marcum was Shaun Marcum, Collin Cowgill’s stay was mercifully short, and Travis d’Arnaud didn’t get much of a look due to injury.  As for the big-name outfielders the Mets didn’t get in the offseason, well, Victorino was probably the only one worth his contract and I think I’m the only Mets fan who wanted to see him on the Mets.

Johan Santana won’t matter

As it turns out, Santana landed squarely on the worst case scenario line.  While I didn’t pick that as the likely outcome, I didn’t think Santana would be a factor in 2013 and he certainly wasn’t.

The Mets had to keep David Wright

Take a look at the Game 162 lineup.  Now picture it without Wright.  Yeah, the Mets need him.  We got a look at the Mets without Wright when he was on the DL and it wasn’t pretty.

Zack Wheeler: Impact Rookie

Wheeler did well in his rookie stint, but he didn’t blow everyone away like Harvey did.  Still, he’s a solid starter in a rotation that featured Daisuke Matsuzaka and Aaron Harang at the end.  Travis d’Arnaud will take his rookie eligibility into 2014, so he wasn’t the right pick either.  The real impact rookie this year was Juan Lagares, who was one of the top defensive outfielders in baseball in 2013 while being merely replacement-level at the plate.  He set a Mets rookie record with 16 outfield assists, just three short of the Mets season record.  Lagares was overshadowed last year by Matt den Dekker, but an injury in spring training kept den Dekker in the minors until the end of August.  Lagares is on his way to becoming a star if he can get it together at the plate, but that’s a big if.

An honorable mention has to go to Scott Rice, who made his MLB debut with the Mets on Opening Day and pitched himself to hernia surgery in September.  Along the way, he earned his first Rookie Card, though he has yet to appear in an MLB-licensed product (Lagares on the other hand is still waiting for his first Rookie Card).  Not bad for someone originally drafted in 1999.

Mets finish at 76-86, 4th in the NL East

I was a couple of wins over on the record and one place under in the standings.  Who knew the Phillies could fall so far so fast?  With the Marlins seemingly loaded with prospects, the Phillies could find themselves in the basement as early as next year.

On the plus side, the Mets didn’t contend for half a season and then flush themselves down the toilet.  2013 was a series of ups and downs, though the end result was the same as last year.  Take out the injuries and add some better players and maybe you have a team that can stay strong all season.  But that’s still a bit of a stretch.  They didn’t fail in their usual way, so that’s something.

Ike Davis Strikes Back

Well, three words out of four ain’t bad…  Davis looked terrible at the start of the season, even worse than he did last year.  A month in Vegas helped him a little, but the power never came back.  He finished with just 9 home runs in 103 games, well off his usual pace.  A full season of Ike was not something to look forward to after all.

Elsewhere, there were some fun moments.  Sweeping the Yankees in four games, including a walkoff to end Mariano Rivera’s final appearance at Citi Field, was nice.  Matt Harvey’s starts were always must-see TV, even if the Mets often found a way to lose.  The Harvey/Wheeler doubleheader may have been the most anticipated day of Mets baseball all season.  And of course Harvey’s start at the All-Star game and the Futures Game started by a pair of Mets prospects were memorable, even if they weren’t actual Mets games.

The Jordany Valdespin question has been answered.  Wilmer Flores is still largely an unknown, as is the pronunciation of Familia’s first name.  Bobby Parnell did a great job as closer, though injury ended his season early and gave us LaTroy Hawkins, Vic Black, and Frank Francisco as possible closers.  Gabriel Ynoa is a stud, Luis Mateo not so much, and Hansel Robles regressed.  Las Vegas seems to be working out, but there may only be another year of it left.  And no, the outfield question did not get resolved in 2013.  There was a lot to see this year, even if we already knew how it would end.  The season is a journey and this one is over.