Collect the Mets

(Because I’m at least as qualified as the rest of these idiots.)

As the players start their first days of Spring Training (well, at least the ones who had the nerve to only show up “on time,” whatever that means), the discussion naturally turns to who will or will not be on the team next year.  Huh?  Can’t we even get to the first game before the trade rumors start flying?  Come on, so-called media, at least let a few more players get their season-ending injuries out of the way before you roll out the doom and gloom cloud of the possible (some would say inevitable) departure of David Wright.

How did we get here?  Well, it all started when Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals third baseman and friend of Wright, got a massive contract extension.  Speculation ran wild about what this would mean for the price to keep Wright when his contract runs out, but Wright quickly dismissed such nonsense.  This led to talk of trading Wright, with a unnamed source claiming that it would take an overwhelming package on the order of four Zack Wheelers to get the front office to consider moving Wright.  Since the Mets currently have the only Zack Wheeler known to be any good at baseball, this would make a trade a near impossibility.  The media then proclaimed that it was a near certainty that Wright would be traded.  See how that works?

So why do I care about any of this?  I know, trade rumors aren’t exactly my thing, but I have my reasons.  Wright is currently the longest-tenured current Met with a game-used patch card (see how that ties everything back together?).  Why is that piece of trivia important?  All will be revealed in time, but let’s just say that I like to have the Mets patch card spot filled by a star player who has never played for another team.  If Wright were to go elsewhere, that would leave me with, um, Ike Davis?  No offense to Ike (and that gold Topps Marquee Acclaimed Impressions dual patch auto is a beauty), but I’d rather see Wright finish out his career with the Mets.

Let’s take a look at the facts before getting into this any deeper:

• Wright is due $15 million this year.
• The Mets hold a team option on Wright for 2013 at $16 million ($1 million buyout).
• The team option can’t be picked up until after the 2012 season.
• If Wright is traded, he can void the team option.
• The Mets have no major commitments on the books past 2013 (unless Bay’s option vests)

And let’s lay out some assumptions/speculation:

• The Mets will not be a player in any big-name high-dollar multi-year free agents over the next couple of years (current players not named Bay or Santana excepted).
• A lot of promising players are expected to make their debuts with the Mets between now and 2014.
• The loss of Jose Reyes still stings.
• The front office is aware of what the additional loss of Wright would do to the fans.
• Fred Wilpon loves Wright (like a son).

Does that all add up to Wright not being on the Mets in 2013?  The case for Wright being traded in 2012 is flimsy at best.  After 2012 makes marginally more sense, but not even 50-50.  The payroll flexibility to sign Wright after 2013 (or after 2012 and replacing the option) looks like it is there, so it should just be a matter of years, dollars, and performance, right?  That kind of talk doesn’t sell newspapers though (well, nothing sells newspapers anymore), so we get hysterics instead.

Continuing with the trade narrative, let’s take a look at the Jose Reyes trade situation to see if there’s anything we can learn about how the Mets front office views trades of star players:

• Jose Reyes, despite a poorly-timed injury, was a top player at the trade deadline, barely removed from the MVP chase.
• The Mets front office must have been entertaining offers for Reyes right up until the deadline.
• The best haul for Reyes that has any credibility is, wait for it, Zack Wheeler.
• The Mets got Wheeler back for Carlos Beltran, widely seen as lesser than Reyes.
• After seeing some major offseason trades involving some of the players speculated to be possible trade options for Reyes, the return for a Reyes rental would drop off sharply from Wheeler.
• Reyes’s departure gave the Mets two high draft picks; the rules have since changed, removing draft pick compensation for players traded during the season.

This one is a bit murkier, but my crystal ball has a pre-injury Reyes trade bringing back Wheeler in return, plus a couple of middling prospects for Beltran shortly thereafter, probably also in a trade with the Giants (Beltran was worth no draft picks and was a bigger injury risk; San Francisco had the most glaring need, as evidenced by their failure to make the playoffs).  Why wouldn’t Reyes be worth more than Wheeler or why wouldn’t Beltran have seen a similar return?  If you took the time to pull the SABR out of your ass, you would realize that baseball players aren’t numbers and the pool of interested trade partners and available prospects is extremely limited.  It’s one thing to calculate what a player SHOULD be worth, it’s quite another to actually make a deal for that amount.

To demonstrate this, let’s assume that you have the following money: one dollar bill, one 50 cent piece, and two dimes.  You want to purchase an apple and an orange and you will need to save some money for dinner, where $1 or more would be good to have.  You can’t get any change.  In the market, there is one apple for sale for 35 cents, one orange for sale for 55 cents, a bunch of exotic fruit you can’t afford, and some rotting peaches and overripe bananas.  What do you do?  Your options are to overpay for the apple, overpay for the apple and the orange, haggle the orange down to 50 cents, haggle the apple down to 20 cents, or haggle the pair down to 70 cents.  If the vendor isn’t motivated to sell, you’re stuck paying 50 cents for the apple (keeping $1.20) or paying $1 for both (keeping 70 cents).  The Giants paid 50 cents for the apple and then missed dinner.  The Mets have a shiny new 50 cent piece that should be pitching in Binghamton this year.  The orange will be wearing, um, orange this year.  Yeah, it’s far from a perfect analogy.

The Mets got a great deal for Beltran last year, but a similar haul for Reyes just wasn’t there.  Considering that David Wright’s performance is at the lowest point of his career, I wouldn’t expect any overwhelming offers (or even just moderately underwhelming ones) unless Wright absolutely tears it up to start the season, but then you would incur the wrath of the fans for trading him just when he seemed to be getting his act together.  As much as the Mets are criticized by the media and already disgruntled fans for not trading Reyes, the fallout would have been worse if he had been traded (particularly if he still went on to win the batting title).  Not matching or beating a risky 6 year $106 million deal for Reyes with two bad contracts still on the books is understandable (if you have half a brain).  Trading an All-Star Wright would be career suicide for the Mets front office.

All of this ignores the Mets finances, which, let’s face it, haven’t been in great shape lately.  Let’s say the Mets are short on cash and need to pawn Wright off cheap.  Nobody who takes him is going to pay all that much of whatever is left of his $15 million salary (let’s say $5 million max).  If you want to dump salary, why not sell off Jason Bay cheap?  He has more guaranteed dollars (and years) to play with, so picking up all but $5 million looks like a better deal with him.  There’s also that pesky vesting option to watch out for.  Johan Santana probably isn’t going anywhere, but there’s always a chance.  Other options are Andres Torres and any of the new relievers; good seasons out of any of them could turn them into valuable trade chips that would bring back low-level prospects and save some cash; combined, that could get you $2 or 3 million.  On top of the cash, Sandy and co. would be praised for making any of the non-Wright deals (even cutting Bay before the 2013 season and eating his 2013 salary would probably be considered a win).  If the Mets are so short on cash that they need to make all of these deals just to pay the bills, Selig would have to step in and tell his buddy Fred to sell the team, right?  Right?

Any way you run the cost-benefit analysis, trading Wright just doesn’t make sense.  When you factor in the attitude in the front office, it makes more sense that an extension is signed next offseason.  The logical conclusion from this is that Wright will be traded mid-season for a bag of grapefruit and season tickets to the Marlins, with the Mets picking up his full 2012 salary and paying shipping for the grapefruit (the tickets are will-call).  BBWAA membership please!