Category Archives: Autographs - Page 7

Adventures in Group Breaking

Posted by on 21 December 2013 Comments Off on Adventures in Group Breaking

Breakin’ 3: Bowman Sterling-y

In case you’ve been living under a rock (or just don’t follow the sports card industry), group breaking is the hottest trend in sports cards.  For a (relatively) small fee, collectors who can’t afford the high prices of modern cases can still get a shot at a big hit, provided that they buy into the right slots.  Formats vary, but there are opportunities to get a big return on a small investment (or the reverse).  I’ve been doing the cost-benefit analysis on the various opportunities I’ve seen and finally found the right mix of return and risk in the year’s final offering from Topps as broken by collector favorite Brent Williams.  But before we get to that, let’s take a look at a couple of smaller breaks I tested the waters with earlier in the year.

2012 Panini Prizm

The first break I considered this year was the 2012 Panini Prizm team break from Brent Williams.  I decided that it wasn’t worth the risk at the asking price when I would probably walk away with a Lucas Duda autograph as the big hit.  Instead, I found a cheap 4-box break to buy into.  That should have been good for two base team sets on average, which would include a Matt Harvey Rookie card (because this was a 2012 product).  In the end, I got what I was hoping for: one full team set, a second team set minus one card, an extra Ike Davis, and a few inserts.

And of course a Duda auto.  There was no getting around that one.

2013 Bowman Draft Picks & Prospects

I never really know how to deal with Bowman Draft.  Prices for some of the cards that come out of it can be quite high, but the long-term value is highly volatile.  Positioned at the end of the base Bowman line, most of the Rookie Cards are duplicates from earlier releases (with new photos), which adds to the confusion.  This year, with increased production, decreased numbering on colored refractors, and more variants than ever before, I just bought up base and chrome lots, the base autographs, and a few cheap parallels and left it at that.  To make things interesting, I also bid on a few player slots in a 5-case break from RynemCaseBreaks.  I ended up with only two, Andrew Church (non-auto only) and Zack Wheeler.  With a total cost including shipping of less than $20 and a practically guaranteed 30+ card lot of base/chrome cards for each player, I wasn’t too worried about coming up empty.  Because there wasn’t much of a chance at a big return anyway.

I actually watched almost all of the 5-case break live and it was quite entertaining.  Some slots came up big while others were big losers.  The Bowman Black slot, a bargain at well under $100, was the big winner with both Kris Bryant and Austin Meadows pulled from the 5 cases.  That’s over $500 worth of cards for a slot that could have been a total loss.  On the Mets side of things, the $20 Andrew Church autograph slot came up big with base, refractor, and orange refractor (#d/25) versions pulled in the break.  The $120 Dominic Smith autograph slot on the other hand got just a base autograph (worth about $20).

My slots were not big winners.  In addition to the expected base and chrome cards, I got four parallels: two Zack Wheeler refractors, a Zack Wheeler ice parallel, and an Andrew Church black wave refractor.  Out of all of the base Mets pulled in the break, the best card was a green refractor numbered to 75.

2013 Bowman Sterling

And now, the main event.  Bowman Sterling isn’t exactly my favorite product.  Released at the end of the year, it usually features a mix of rehashed rookies and draft picks, a less popular second helping of autographs we’ve already seen in more interesting products.  Last year, a terribly bland design with refractors that barely looked like refractors did nothing to help the checklist of repeat signers.  Prices on the secondary market reflected these problems; I picked up a gold refractor autograph (#d/50) of Kirk Nieuwenhuis for $1.50 plus shipping and a black refractor autograph (#d/25) of Kevin Plawecki for about $10 more.  The Bowman Black autographs had some decent value, but the massive chipping that plagued thick Topps autographs in 2012 caused them to lose some of their appeal.  Sterling needed a revamp to justify taking a slot in the Topps lineup.

2013 Bowman Sterling is a completely different product from its 2012 incarnation.  Sure, the basics are still the same: 3 autographs per pack, 18 total autographs per box, dual sticker autographs, Bowman Black autographs numbered to 25, etc.  This time though, the autographs are in portrait orientation (typically more highly desired than landscape) and green, ruby, and orange refractor parallels fill the space between refractors and gold refractors.  Most Rookie Card autographs are, unfortunately, on stickers, but the product delivers where it counts: prospect autographs.  2013 draft picks Dominic Smith and Andrew Church return after Bowman Draft, but joining them are Noah Syndergaard with his first Mets autographs and L.J. Mazzilli (fan favorite Lee Mazzilli’s son) with his first certified autograph cards.  Add in some Zack Wheeler sticker autographs and you have a solid Mets checklist with a few must-haves for any serious Mets collector.

Shortly after the checklist was released, Brent Williams announced the possibility of a team-based group break of Bowman Sterling on launch day.  With 106 rookie/prospect autographs in 2013 Bowman Sterling and 144 total autographs in an 8-box case, the odds of getting all of a team’s base autographs are pretty good.  A quick calculation put the over/under of the value of the Mets slot at $90.  For the right price, this would be a great break to get in on.  Which meant that I probably wasn’t the only Mets fan who would be after this slot.

Two days later, Brent Williams announced that the Bowman Sterling break was on.  I was catching up on Twitter while waiting in line at the post office to mail out recent auction sales.  And I was a couple of hours behind on my tweets.  Skipping to the top, I saw that the price breakdown had just been posted.  The Mets slot was priced at $90, right on my estimated cost.  At that price, even getting just the base Mets autographs wouldn’t be a bad deal, especially with them all in one package sent the day after launch.  There was a chance of getting less, but there was also a decent chance of getting some nice bonuses.  20 minutes after the announcement, I claimed the Mets slot without hesitation.  And then I waited two long days for the break to begin.

2013 Bowman Sterling 8-Box Case Break – brentandbecca

I tried to keep my expectations in check.  All I wanted were the five base Mets autographs, one of the base Mets cards, and something extra.  Unfortunately, I missed the start of the break and came in about halfway through.  Among all of the Pirates, Philies, and Yankees autographs, I saw only a Noah Syndergaard base card and two L.J. Mazzilli base autographs.  From what I heard, I had missed a pair of Andrew Church base autographs and a Dominic Smith green refractor autograph.  That still left me three base autographs short of my goal as the break entered its final minutes.  And then the rest of them started hitting one after another.  The base Dominic Smith auto and a green refractor Zack Wheeler auto came up at the end of box number 7.  Box number 8 held the final two base autos, Syndergaard and Wheeler.  And with that, this break had exceeded my expectations.

And that’s it.  Nothing huge, but everything I wanted.  I also had a chance at both The Duel inserts featuring Mets, but I lost out on both of them to the other team featured on the card.  Now I’m just waiting for the post office to deliver the cards.

Head to Head: Fan Favorites Autographs vs. Hometown Signatures

Posted by on 19 December 2013 Comments Off on Head to Head: Fan Favorites Autographs vs. Hometown Signatures

Topps and Panini showcase minor stars in major ways

It’s common for different companies to attempt to produce the same product with varying levels of success.  When it happens with baseball cards, we’ll put them Head to Head to find out which one comes out on top and what room there is for improvement.

Last year, Topps revived its Archives brand as a celebration of past card designs and fan favorite players you may have forgotten.  This year, Panini countered with Hometown Heroes.  The alliterative title alone made it clear that Panini was aiming squarely at the target market for Archives (which itself was known as All-Time Fan Favorites in a past incarnation).  The Hometown Signatures insert set is a clear counterpart to Archives’ Fan Favorites Autographs insert set, a collection of on-card autographs from dozens of the game’s lesser stars.  Ideally, I would compare the complete offerings of both products, but the Hometown Heroes base set is so unappealing that I haven’t gone anywhere near it.  Even the secondary autograph insert sets are fairly boring (and all use sticker autographs, though Archives has gone in that direction as well), so there really isn’t anything worth looking at except for the Hometown Signatures set.  And even that may be a bit of a stretch.

Card Design

Luckily, we have plenty of overlap in the Fan Favorites Autographs and Hometown Signatures checklists.  Ron Darling is the lone Met common to both sets, so let’s start there.  On the Fan Favorites Autographs side, Topps uses classic card designs with new photos and a faded section at the bottom for the signature.  Hometown Signatures on the other hand combines geometric shapes in light blue and light green to make, well, that.  A chartreuse section at the bottom serves as the signature location.  Since Panini lacks a license from MLB Properties, no team names or logos are used, just a “New York” team identifier.  Only the 2013 Hometown Heroes logo adds any distinctiveness to the overwhelming blandness of the design.  Both feature the newer form of Darling’s signature, which you can get in person on a card of your choice at the Queens Baseball Convention, January 18, 2014 at McFadden’s Citi Field (subtle plug).

This isn’t a showdown so much as it’s a one-sided smackdown.  Panini starts out at a disadvantage without team names and logos, but a generic design with the worst possible color combination isn’t helping.  On top of that, the blue ink on green background turns the signature blue-black, keeping the main focus of the card from standing out.  I haven’t even gotten into how the use of vintage cardboard stock with an unspectacular modern design (I would say “vintage-inspired” if I could figure out the inspiration) makes everything look like a cheap knock-off…  The 1986 Topps design isn’t exactly a crowd pleaser, but the execution on modern card stock is flawless.  Combine that with the nostalgia of 1986 and you have a clear winner to go along with Panini’s clear loser.

Player Selection

Well, that wasn’t very exciting.  Maybe a look at the checklists can even things out.  The 2013 Hometown Signatures set weighs in at 93 cards, far more than the 58 cards in the 2013 Fan Favorites Autographs set.  While many of the names on the Hometown Signatures list are familiar from the 2012 and 2013 Fan Favorites Autographs sets, there are a few notable exceptions.  Among those are the first Pat Tabler autographs I’ve seen and the first Garry Templeton autographs since 2001.  In all, 14 former Mets are included, including four as Mets (well, “New York” at least): Darling plus Lenny Dykstra, Darryl Strawberry, and Lee Mazzilli.

Yes, Lee Mazzilli has his first autograph from a company other than Upper Deck and his first autograph card with a player photograph since 2007 in the Hometown Signatures set.  It may not be pretty, but it’s something.  So what does the Fan Favorites Autographs set have to offer?

Looks like Fan Favorites Autographs takes this one too.  Mookie Wilson, Jesse Orosco, Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez, Kevin McReynolds, Howard Johnson, Gregg Jefferies, and Keith Miller are all shown as Mets.  Miller’s card is his first autograph card and his first card of any kind since 1995.  Another seven former Mets are shown with other teams, including Ray Knight, Bret Saberhagen, Hubie Brooks, and four others in common with Hometown Signatures.  The Fan Favorites Autographs set just has more to offer.

Verdict

There’s nothing more to say, Fan Favorites Autographs wins this one easily.  When going up against an autograph set with history dating back to 2001 and a formula that has been refined nearly to perfection, you need to bring your A game.  Panini used a childish design to appeal to childhood memories and it just didn’t work.

2013 Mets Draft Class Autographs

Posted by on 1 December 2013 2 comments

The top three are on the board

Full list of 2013 Mets draft picks

Less than six months after the draft, we’re seeing the first certified autographs from the 2013 draft class. Dominic Smith is all over the hobby with autographs in Topps, Panini, and Leaf products. Andrew Church and Ivan Wilson are somewhat less prolific with autographs in one product each. It’s a start, I guess.

1 Dominic Smith 2 Andrew Church 3 Ivan Wilson 3 Casey Meisner
4 L.J. Mazzilli 5 Jared King 6 Champ Stuart 7 Matt Oberste
8 Ricky Knapp 9 Patrick Biondi 10 Luis Guillorme 11 Tyler Bashlor
12 Jeff McNeil 15 Colton Plaia 17 John Magliozzi 25 Ricardo Jacquez

The Mets sign those who don’t sign cards

The general consensus on the Mets’ 2013 draft was fairly positive. They got the draft’s best pure hitter in Dominic Smith and a lot of top talent across the board. What they didn’t get were a whole lot of guys with baseball cards on the market. In fact, of the 41 picks the Mets made, only five of them have any available cards. Colton Plaia and Ricardo Jacquez have certified autograph and Team USA memorabilia cards, while Dominic Smith, Ivan Wilson, and John Magliozzi have a few base All-American game cards (some of which have been signed but are not certified). Really guys? That’s the best you could do? How am I supposed to fill out this piece when there aren’t any cards to show? I guess we’ll have to wait a few months for Topps and Panini to get caught up on these guys…

Previous Editions:

2012 Mets Draft Class Autographs
2011 Mets Draft Class Autographs

The Danger of Pitchers Signing Autographs

Posted by on 21 October 2013 Comments Off on The Danger of Pitchers Signing Autographs

Ink and arms don’t mix

Here at Collect the Mets, we guarantee you one card-related crackpot conspiracy theory every year.  It’s part of the differentiated value we offer in our efforts to deliver content that you won’t find anywhere else (often with good reason).  Last year, we broke the story about the Curse of the Pinstripes, which has yet to claim any victims in 2013.  So far, no current-year Mets players have had Mets pinstripe jersey cards released in 2013 (Update: Zack Wheeler was the lone current-year Met with pinstripe jersey cards released in 2013), though at least Matt Harvey and Jeremy Hefner are known to be out for 2014.  If either of them has a Mets pinstripe jersey card in one of the final products of the year, that provides retroactive validation of the curse.  If not, well, then we don’t get any nice pinstripe jersey cards, which is frustrating for collectors.

This year, the Mets suffered injury after injury from even before Day 1.  Johan Santana was the big question mark for 2013, but it turns out that he was little more than an underscore.  After an injury in spring training, Santana went back under the knife and was lost for 2013.  That’s how it went for Mets pitchers for the rest of the year, right up to Matt Harvey’s postseason announcement that he would be undergoing Tommy John surgery and would miss 2014.  With bookends like that, much will be written about the Mets’ injury woes in 2013, but most blogs will leave out one crucial element: the fact that so many pitchers signed large quantities of autograph cards right before their injuries.  Can this be a coincidence?  In a word: absolutely.  Everyone is looking for a pattern in pitcher injuries (see our own Good Pitcher Effect), but their commonality masks any clear causality.  Which makes it just as likely as anything else that signing autographs leads to pitcher breakdowns.

Injured With Autographs

Jeurys Familia (Topps Series 1, Topps Gypsy Queen, Bowman, Bowman Inception, Panini Pinnacle, Topps Tier One, Topps Chrome, Topps Finest)

Jeurys Familia was once considered one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects alongside Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler.  By the time he made his MLB debut in 2012, he was projecting more as a late-inning reliever or closer than a starter.  He entered 2013 as one of only two Mets eligible for Rookie Cards but was no sure bet to make the team out of spring training.  While he did just barely make the Opening Day roster, he made only eight appearances before going on the 60-day DL on May 9 in need of elbow surgery.  After three months of rehab, Familia returned to Queens for his final appearance of 2013, giving up one run on two hits and two walks while striking out one to open the 9th in an 8-5 Mets loss.

Familia was the go-to guy for Mets autographs in 2013.  His Rookie Card eligibility made him a safe bet to appear in most of the products released in 2013 and an attractive option for autographed inserts.  With autographs in Topps Series 1, Topps Gypsy Queen, and Bowman, he must have been signing well before the start of the season.  The timing lines up, but were the autographs a factor in his injury?  Let’s just say yes for the sake of the narrative.  His continued presence in just about everything else this year means that he must have been signing autographs during rehab.  Could that sabotage his recovery?

Luis Mateo (Bowman Platinum, Bowman Chrome)

As part of the 2012 Brooklyn Cyclones all-star rotation, Luis Mateo saw his prospect status rise considerably.  While not as polished as teammate Gabriel Ynoa, Mateo was the highest-regarded pitcher from that Brooklyn rotation and made the jump to St. Lucie for the 2013 Season.  After one start for St. Lucie, he was called up to AA Binghamton to make a spot start, which is where everything went wrong.  He suffered an elbow injury during the game, spent more than a month rehabbing in an attempt to avoid more severe injury, and then had Tommy John surgery in June after a pair of relief appearances for St. Lucie.

And then he had his first autograph cards released in July in Bowman Platinum.  As with Familia’s first autos, these were almost certainly signed before the start of the season.  Mateo would also have autographs released in September in Bowman Chrome, but it is not known when he signed these (Rafael Montero and Matt Reynolds signed theirs in the summer).  That’s two big autograph signers and two busted elbows.  But wait, there’s more.

Shaun Marcum (Topps Series 2, Topps Tier One)

There were many people who doubted that Shaun Marcum would ever throw a pitch for the Mets.  With a reputation for being injury-prone, Marcum’s signing came at significant risk.  So it came as no surprise that his season ended in July with shoulder surgery.

And then he had 670 autograph cards released in Topps Tier One the next month.  He was also supposed to have autographs in Topps Series 2 in June, but those were issued as redemptions.  Did his spring training injury delay his signing until May or June?  If so, the timing lines up with his injury.  That’s two elbows and a shoulder now, though we have no causative link.  But when has that ever stopped anyone?

Corey Oswalt (Topps Heritage Minor League Edition)

Knee injury, only signed for one product late in the season – let’s just mark this one “Not Applicable” and move on.

Matt Harvey (2011 Bowman Platinum signed in July 2013)

And the big one.  Matt Harvey was one of the few reasons to watch the Mets in 2013, so the news in August that he had a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) was devastating.  Harvey drew out the decision of whether to have Tommy John surgery until October, when he announced that he was opting for surgery.  That takes him out for all of 2014 and makes it questionable as to whether he will be back at full strength in 2015.

Matt Harvey has no autographs in any 2013 products.  He signed about 500 total autograph cards for Panini’s 2012 products, which were released into this spring.  Before that, you have to go back to 2010 to find any Matt Harvey autograph cards.  So why is he here?  It turns out that Harvey signed his 2011 Bowman Platinum autographs on July 25, almost two years to the day after that product was released.  And about a month before his injury was announced.  Based on a carefully-selected small sample of cases, we can conclude that autographs kill elbows and maybe shoulders.  What happens if we widen our sample a bit and take a look at a few more 2013 Mets pitchers?

Injured Without Autographs

Johan Santana

Let’s just all agree that the Curse of the Pinstripes has been working overtime here and take Santana out of the running for this one.  In fact, of the three Curse victims, Santana is the only one to ever play for the Mets again afterward, throwing the Mets’ first no-hiter in the process.  Before getting stepped on and having it all come crashing down.  Maybe the Curse is stronger than I thought…  Santana has never been a big autograph signer, so he doesn’t really fit here.

Jonathon Niese

The 2013 (and likely 2014) Opening Day starter, Niese had high expectations this year even with the emergence of Matt Harvey as an ace and the anticipated arrival of Zack Wheeler.  Now in the role of the veteran following the trade of R.A. Dickey and Johan Santana’s re-injury, it was up to him to stabilize a rotation out of control.  So it shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to see him hit the DL in June with a partially torn rotator cuff.  The injury only sidelined him for a month and a half though and Niese closed out the 2013 season at Citi Field.

After having plenty of autograph cards from 2009 to 2012, Niese has been a no-show so far this year except for a few multi-player sticker autograph cards (numbered to 15).  With no recent autographs, we can’t blame any injuries from this year on signing.  Maybe not signing autographs is the culprit here.

Jeremy Hefner

2013 was Hefner’s opportunity to step up and claim a spot in the Mets’ diminished rotation.  After securing the spot start / long reliever role in 2012, Hefner found himself at the back end of the rotation when Santana and Marcum were unavailable to start the season.  After a shaky start in his new role as a regular starter, Hefner dominated over a 6-week stretch starting in the beginning of June, pitching 51 innings over 8 starts with an ERA of 1.76, 40 strikeouts, and just 8 walks over that span.  His next start would be the shortest of the season, lasting only two plus innings with 8 runs and 10 hits given up.  His next four starts weren’t much better, going no longer than 6 innings and giving up no fewer than 3 runs in any of them.  By mid-August, Hefner was on the DL with Tommy John surgery looming in his future.

You sure can’t blame this one on autographs because Hefner doesn’t have any.  He remains one of the most prominent Mets without a certified autograph card, a problem that won’t be helped by elbow surgery.

Update:

Hefner signed his first autographs while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  And then went back under the knife for a second round…

Bobby Parnell

After Frank Francisco went down with injury, the Mets needed a new closer.  Bobby Parnell stepped up and pitched better than the results indicated, falling victim to blown saves resulting from the actions of the players behind him on more than one occasion.  And then a neck injury sidelined Parnell, with his season ending in surgery.

Parnell hasn’t signed autographs in a few years, plus this is a neck injury and not an arm injury.  There’s no connection here, so this is another one to mark “Not Applicable.”

Update:

Well, that escalated quickly…  Parnell seemed to recover from that neck injury without incident, but something didn’t seem quite right going into the 2014 season.  After an Opening Day blown save, it was revealed that Parnell had a partially torn UCL.  And in case you missed it, he also had autograph cards in 2013 Panini Select, released during the offseason.  Looks like we’ve got another one.

Jenrry Mejia

Once considered one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects (sound familiar?), Mejia made his debut in 2010 when Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel were desperate to keep their jobs.  Mejia became the sacrificial lamb, called up to pitch middle relief in low leverage spots as you would expect competent management to do with one of your top starting pitching prospects.  Or not.  Mejia’s development was further derailed by Tommy John surgery in 2011, making the fact that he even still existed news for Mets fans when he returned to the majors in September 2012.  His 2013 spring training injury on the other hand was nothing unexpected.  Injury #2 had him working his way through the minors on rehab until late July, when he made his 2013 debut with a trio of sevens: 7IP, 7H, and 7K to go with zeroes in the runs and walks columns.  Top prospect Jenrry Mejia was back, and not a minute too soon for a rotation with a rotating cast on the DL.  Which Mejia would rejoin a month later with bone spurs in his elbow for injury #3.

Mejia hasn’t signed autographs since 2010, so there’s no way to connect them to his 2013 injury unless Topps is sitting on an unused stockpile somewhere.  But did those 2010 autographs, combined with his erratic use on the mound that year, contribute to his 2011 injury?

Michael Fulmer

Ranked as one of the top prospects in the Mets system at the start of 2013, Fulmer has endured setback after setback.  A torn meniscus during spring training delayed his start to the season, then just nine starts in he was hit by a batted ball and removed as a precautionary measure.  Following that, he returned to the DL with a shoulder strain.  He is expected to be ready to go for spring training next year.

As the 44th overall pick in 2011, Michael Fulmer made the rounds in the draft pick autograph products that year.  Since then though, we haven’t really seen much from him.  Topps used a few of his sticker autographs in 2013 Bowman Chrome, but those were almost certainly old stock.  Unless he did some signing for an upcoming product over the summer, there’s nothing to see here.  Except for a series of unfortunate injuries.

Cory Mazzoni

Speaking of a series of unfortunate injuries…  Elbow neuritis in April, strained hamstring in July…  It sure seems like a lot more than that.  Mazzoni only appeared in 13 games in 2013, none of which were any of the times I saw the B-Mets.

As for autographs, Mazzoni is another one with lots of 2011 autos and not much since then.  The only 2013 Mazzoni autograph I’ve seen is the one I got from him in person at a game (while he was on the DL of course).  Another unrelated case.

Taylor Whitenton

After an injury in spring training, Whitenton has completely dropped off the map.  Let’s just call this the bottom of the barrel and stop here.

Not Injured With Autographs

A few prominent pitchers made it through the 2013 season without injury and with a few autographs to show for it.  Do they provide evidence disproving our hypothesis or do they have injuries coming in the near future?  Only time will tell.

Zack Wheeler (Bowman Platinum, Topps Chrome, Topps Finest)

Scouts reported that Wheeler was MLB-ready in spring training, but a strained oblique during batting practice caused him to lose key prep time, making a start in the minors inevitable.  From there, it was just a matter of which money-saving deadline the Mets would hold out for.  Wheeler made his MLB debut in June and nearly reached his innings limit when he was shut down for the season in September after complaining of shoulder stiffness.  The injury wasn’t considered to be serious and likely would have only caused him to miss a start if it had taken place earlier in the season.

Wheeler only had about 30 total autograph cards as a Met released before his MLB debut, then had hundreds between Bowman Platinum, Topps Chrome, and Topps Finest.  Was the impact of these signings starting to catch up to him in September?  He’s one to keep an eye on next year.

Update:

Even with the Curse of the Pinstripes piled on after 2013 Topps Triple Threads, Wheeler remained healthy for the 2014 season.  He also signed a few more autographs, but surely not enough to be cause for concern, right?.  He will miss all of the 2015 season following Tommy John surgery.

Rafael Montero (Bowman Chrome, Leaf Metal Draft)

Montero is one of the next top pitching prospects due to debut for the Mets, assuming that he isn’t traded first.  After a year split between AA and AAA, Montero could be ready at any time in 2014.  This past July, Montero signed his first certified autograph cards.  No injury followed.  So there’s that.

Domingo Tapia (Leaf Metal Draft)

Tapia has been one of the Mets’ top pitching prospects in the low minors, though his 2013 wasn’t quite in line with his past performance.  A cooking injury sidelined him for a bit in May, but otherwise he’s been fairly consistent at 100+ innings over each of the last two seasons.  Tapia was a surprise to see with an autograph in 2013 Leaf Metal Draft.

Conclusion

Inconclusive.  There’s really nothing that can be said with any certainty without a more comprehensive analysis.  For our purposes though, we can come to a completely unscientific sensationalistic conclusion based on a carefully-selected set of data points and declare that signing autographs contributes to pitcher injury.  I was joking when I started this, but the timing in some of these cases makes me wonder if there might be something to it after all.  While it certainly isn’t a direct cause, could autograph signing be one of many factors that make pitchers susceptible to arm injuries?  There’s so much we don’t know about pitcher injuries that it could be possible.

2013 Mets Debut Autographs

Posted by on 23 September 2013 Comments Off on 2013 Mets Debut Autographs

Auditions for 2014 are now open

It’s been a rough year for the Mets. Starting pitchers have been dropping all season long, with Johan Santana and Shaun Marcum unlikely to return, Jeremy Hefner out for all of 2014, and Matt Harvey due to be ready for Opening Day, either in 2014 or 2015. David Wright missed two months, Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada went down just when they were trying to make a case to come back in 2014 as more than AAA org filler, Bobby Parnell and Scott Rice saw their seasons end with surgery, Jeurys Familia and Frank Francisco missed most of the season… All of this does open doors for the prospects though, until they too suffer an injury like Wilmer Flores did and is still trying to recover from while also getting playing time (the opposite of recovery…). If you want a job in baseball in 2014, the Mets are the team for you.

Take starting pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Aaron Harang, for instance. Both earned release from their previous teams and were quickly snatched up by the Mets. Both are aiming for a starting job in 2014, for another team. I’m not sure Mets fans could take much more of either of them, but I guess you need someone to pitch those innings with Montero, deGrom, and now Wheeler shut down. Lost amid the rotation shakeup is the outstanding job Dillon Gee has been doing; he should be getting a nice little contract in the offseason to keep him under team control at a reasonable price for the next few years. The bullpen has its share of 2014 candidates as well, with Vic Black and Sean Henn making their Mets debuts, Carlos Torres splitting time between starting and relief, and Jeurys Familia, Pedro Feliciano, and Tim Byrdak back after recovering from injuries. Frank Francisco is almost certainly not coming back next year, but fill-in closer LaTroy Hawkins wants to come back and the Mets want him back, so hopefully the Mets don’t go and screw this up like everyone expects them to.

The outfield is nothing but 2014 auditions with the departure of Marlon Byrd, but more playing time for Juan Lagares and recent call-up Matt den Dekker can’t be a bad thing. As for Eric Young Jr., well, there’s always a backup role to shoot for. Around the infield, Lucas Duda is at first trying to prove that he’s a first baseman, which is better than when he was an outfielder trying to prove that he’s a first baseman. Juan Centeno beat out Francisco Pena for the third catcher spot and, after Ruben Tejada’s freak injury, Wilfredo Tovar made his MLB debut after spending the season in AA. Barring another freak injury, that should be it for the 2013 Mets, leaving them with 28 new faces. That’s tied with 2006 for the 5th most new Mets in the club’s history, behind only 1962 (45), 1967 (35), and 2002 and 2004 (29). Interestingly, those 2002 and 2004 newcomers include one current Met in each year (Pedro Feliciano from 2002 and David Wright from 2004), while no current Mets debuted in 2006. Daniel Murphy in 2008 is the next oldest debut on the active roster behind Feliciano and Wright (next is Niese, then nothing until 2010). With such a young team, just about everything should be up for grabs next year.

John Buck Marlon Byrd Collin Cowgill Brandon Lyon
1 April 2013 1 April 2013 1 April 2013 1 April 2013
Scott Atchison Scott Rice* Greg Burke LaTroy Hawkins
1 April 2013 1 April 2013 3 April 2013 3 April 2013
Aaron Laffey Anthony Recker Juan Lagares* Shaun Marcum
7 April 2013 7 April 2013 23 April 2013 27 April 2013
Andrew Brown Rick Ankiel David Aardsma Carlos Torres
3 May 2013 13 May 2013 8 June 2013 16 June 2013
Zack Wheeler* Eric Young Jr. Gonzalez Germen* Wilmer Flores*
18 June 2013 19 June 2013 12 July 2013 6 August 2013
Travis d’Arnaud* Daisuke Matsuzaka Matt den Dekker* Vic Black
17 August 2013 23 August 2013 29 August 2013 2 September 2013
Sean Henn Aaron Harang Juan Centeno* Wilfredo Tovar*
9 September 2013 12 September 2013 18 September 2013 22 September 2013

*MLB Debut
Read more »

Faded Memories in Ink on Leather

Posted by on 4 August 2013 Comments Off on Faded Memories in Ink on Leather

I’m doing science!

Top 2 rows: August 2012. Bottom row: early 1990s.

A while back, I was looking at my stack of autographed baseballs and noticed something strange. While Rob Carson’s signature was pristine, others that were obtained at the same time (about one year ago) in the same ink (blue Bic Round Stic) on the same balls (Rawlings Official League) had faded to some extent. Fading is a risk you take by displaying signed items, but since these are only items of sentimental value for me, I can live with some fading. This did get me thinking about something @METS_BRO said when I met him at Futures at Fenway last year about ink bleeding on synthetic leather baseball covers but not natural ones. I get all of my autographs on synthetic covers because, at $15.99 or more each, the real ones are just too expensive. An official synthetic cover ball and an Ultra Pro case only costs about $5, which is a bit more reasonable if you plan on getting more than a dozen autographs a year. While the original premise sounds interesting, I’m not about to throw away the money it would take to test it. I am wondering about how different inks react to synthetic cover baseballs, so it’s a good thing I set up this experiment two months ago.

People who know me might be surprised by this, but I only participated in a science fair once, way back in 4th grade. For my project, I built an electromagnet out of a lantern battery, a nail, and some wire and I nearly started a fire when I left it on overnight (but I got to it when it was only hot enough to melt plastic and smoke a little bit). After that experience, one point was made clear: demonstrations of scientific principles don’t win science fairs, data-driven experiments do. With that in mind, I sketched out an experiment to test the effects of different levels of light exposure on seed growth. While not nearly as fun as an electromagnet, it would give me a better chance of winning, which is what science fairs are all about. And then I forgot all about it until I needed a project for 9th grade Biology class. Even as a child, I mined my childhood for ideas rather than coming up with new ones.

What does this have to do with autographed baseballs? Well, I dusted off that project once again and replaced the seeds with baseballs. For the test subjects, three balls that had ink smudges on them were volunteered.

Test Scenario

Each ball included ink samples from two medium point Bic ball point pens (blue and black) and four Sharpie ultra fine point felt tip markers (blue, black, red, and green). These, along with some metallic markers, are what I typically carry with me to games.  Once marked, the test subjects were sent their separate ways.

Test Ball #1: Placed on windowsill centered behind a window pane with an eastern facing and no obstructions blocking the sun until approximately noon.

Test Ball #2: Placed on same windowsill as Test Ball #1, one pane over, inside an Ultra Pro ball cube.

Test Ball #3: Placed inside a cardboard box and stored in a dark closet.

For comparison, “+2” was written in the corresponding ink to the right of the original markings two months after the test was initiated. Photographs were then taken to show the changes in ink color and contrast over this two month period.

Results

Sample Card Test Ball #1 Test Ball #2 Test Ball #3

If you think this writing looks bad, you should see my signature…

Effect of Ball Cube

From these results, it would appear that the ball cube provides a slight amount of UV protection in direct sunlight. And now that I look back over everything, it looks like I have two different models of Ultra Pro ball cubes in use, one that advertises UV protection and one that does not (this does not explain the Carson case, as none of the UV protected holders were in use there). The one used in this test does not advertise any UV protection, but the model that does advises against use in direct sunlight, so… Let’s call this one inconclusive. There is a clear difference in the fading of the red Sharpie between Test Ball #1 and Test Ball #2, with the marking on the unprotected ball turning bright orange. Fading of the other Sharpies appears to be slightly decreased, though it is not clear whether the fading has been stopped or only slowed down. We’ll need to revisit this.

Effect of Chemistry + Time

The control ball shows little change in the blue Bic or black Sharpie over the two-month test period. The red Sharpie has faded about as much as it did on Test Ball #2, indicating that UV exposure is not the cause of that particular fading (a point made more interesting by the severe fading seen in the unprotected Test Ball #1). The blue and green Sharpies have both faded, but not as severely as on either of the UV-exposed balls. Most interesting here is the black Bic, which shows both fading and bleeding after two months of darkness, compared with little of either for its blue counterpart.

Effect of UV Exposure

Combining the two results fairly conclusively shows that ink and sunlight don’t mix. All six of the inks tested show significant damage, though that isn’t unexpected. What is interesting though is how little of the fading can be attributed to UV exposure in the case of the red Sharpie. In fact, UV exposure only seems to affect the color, shifting it from faded red to faded orange.

Conclusions

First, it seems clear that red Sharpies are not the way to go on synthetic cover balls. UV or no UV, they just don’t last. Blue and green fare somewhat better, but exposure to sunlight will fade them into the same light teal. Black holds up the best of the Sharpies, but that isn’t saying much. Ball points seem to be the way to go, but not the black one I tested. Even without sunlight, it didn’t hold up well. Making a consistent mark was a problem for both ball points on the uneven surface of the ball, though the black was especially poor. I have to wonder if a fine point or gel ink would work better. In any case, blue ball point is clearly the way to go.

Recommendations

We’ve concluded that blue ball points are the best pens for the job, but there are many different types to choose from (though you could say that about all of the other options as well I suppose, but let’s try to keep this simple). Medium vs. fine, gel vs. not-gel, Bic vs. Pilot vs. Zebra vs. Uni-Ball vs… You get the idea. The next round of tests will need to account for at least a few of these, with the goal of finding a pen that writes smoothly and retains as much of its color and contrast as possible. I should probably also work in an Ultra Pro ball cube that advertises UV protection, so that means we’ll need another ball to throw into the mix. Tune in next time when we’ll be looking at four blue-ink balls. Until then, science!